Own It Portland: April 2016

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Hello happy home sellers and brave home buyers, welcome to the new Portland Real Estate Wrap Up for April 2016. The March numbers are in and I can't remember seeing a chart that looked quite like this. Pending sales are through the roof while closed sales and current listing numbers are about even. So, what does this mean?

It means we are now in, perhaps, the most competitive real estate market that Portland has ever experienced. Why is the case? Easy - everyone wants to live here. Seriously. Check this article from CNN Money from a few months ago about it. Some blame Fred Armisen and Carrie Brownstein. But hey people, Carrie has left the city for Los Angeles, so I don't know what to tell you.

At the beginning of this post, I called sellers happy. Indeed they are. On average, homes are selling in Portland for 101% of listing price. This is an average so, of course, some are selling for 17% higher and some for 10% lower but this still gives an indication of pressure on prices --- UP.

Some ask, are we in a bubble?

Natalie Wood looks convinced but I am not as fundamentals are strong. Buyers are either all cash or extremely well qualified for loans. This is unlike back in the old days where, if you could fog a mirror, you could have a loan for as much as you want. Plus, we are talking about supply and demand. During the Great Recession, construction all but stopped in Portland while people continued moving here. Now we have very low supply and huge demand. Check out Portland super real estate lawyer Phil Querin's thoughts on the subject of a Portland real estate bubble.

So buyers be brave. It wouldn't be so competitive if this wasn't the greatest city you could possibly live in (It's my opinion. But also, coincidentally, a scientifically proven fact). I love this place and it is for good reason. Mountains, Ocean, Food, Music, Art, and unlimited hipster sports.

Pep talk time: Buyers, do not despair! Us agents know how to craft offers that are really compelling for sellers to accept. Sometimes other terms are more important than money. We often have buyers winning competitive situations where they aren't the highest offer. We also frequently have sellers who choose buyers who aren't the top $-wise. Hire an incredible agent and create an offer that is a massive win-win for both sides and you will have keys in your hand. By the way, this is how keys work:

Good luck out there and go for it.

Here is a chart of all homes for sale, pending for sale, and sold in Portland, Oregon for the last 15 months:

In March 2016, inventory remained steady (low!) and closed sales jumped while pending sales spiked. In March, there were 860 homes on the market, 855 homes sold, and 1062 were pending for sale.

Homes for sale (Inventory):
Up 4.8% compared to last month.
Down 35.5% compared to last year.

Home sales closed:
Up 34% compared to last month.
Down 4.8% compared to last year.

Homes pending:
Up 21.9% compared to last month.
Down 8.9% compared to last year.

Chart for average price per square footage:

In the past 15 months, the average price per square foot in Portland, Oregon has been between $188 and $223. In March 2016, the average price per square foot in Portland was $223.

Price per Sq. Foot in Portland, OR:
Up 3.7% compared to last month.
Up 13.8% compared to last year.

Days on market and sold/list price %:

This chart is showing us two things. First, how many days on the market that a home is spending, on average, before being sold. In all of Portland, in all price ranges, a home is taking, on average, 28 days to sell. Secondly, this chart shows us at what percentage of listing price the home, on average, is selling. This is a great indicator of pressure on prices.

In March 2016, sellers were getting, on average, 101% of their original asking price.

Average Days on Market:
Down 28.2% from last month.
Down 34.9% from last year.

Sold/Original List Price Ratio:
Up 1% from last month.
Up 2% from last year.

Average price for sale vs. average price of sold:

In March, 2016, the average price of a home that sold was $425,000. The average price of a home that was listed was $619,000. This does not mean that a home that was listed for $619,000 sold for $425,000. The listed homes didn't necessarily sell. For the sold/list price percentage average, look at the 'Days on Market' graph. In March 2016, this figure was 101%.

Average Price of a Home Listed:
Up 1.8% from last month.
Up 22.3% from last year.

Average Price of a Home Sold:
Up 9.5% from last month.
Up 15.2% from last year.

Months of inventory:

Months of inventory gives a timeline of how long it would take for all of the current listings to sell. Anything above 6 months is considered a buyer's market, below 6 months is a seller's market. In March 2016, this figure was 1 month based on closed sales. This does NOT mean that it will take, on average, 1 month for your home to sell. That number was, on average in all price ranges, 28 days. It means that, if not a single new listing were to come on the market in Portland, it would take 1 month for all available homes to sell before there would be none left. It is a very strong seller's market.

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales:
Down 23.3% from last month
Down 33.7% from last year

This is a comparison of the past 15 months (including a percentage change analysis for the last 12 months) for all of Portland and are taken directly from the RMLS. What follows is my own analysis of these statistics. For our purposes, I thought it best to analyze Portland as a whole. Each neighborhood, however, is a little micro-universe and has its own market. Changing the parameters of the zip codes, price variables, or time periods can lead to very different results. This analysis is of all homes sold in all price ranges in Portland, Oregon. If you have any questions about specific zip codes, or any questions about the market in general, please reply to this forum with those questions or feel free to contact us.

This information doesn't matter if you have a particular neighborhood in mind since Portland neighborhoods are their own micro-markets. If you have one in mind to buy or are selling your home, please request a report for that neighborhood and I am happy to send it to you.

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Own It Portland

Friday, April 15, 2016

Just Sold! Buyers Looked "Out of Box" in Tigard

The Best Deals in Portland This Week: April 11th - April 18th

Monday, April 11, 2016

April 2016 Portland Real Estate Market Wrap Up

Wednesday, April 6, 2016

The Best Deals in Portland This Week: April 4th - April 11th

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